Grammar talks about events occurring on three plains. In the past, the future has come, we are now living now. However, there is a future in the information age, an era of instant global communication. Gates [1] I write that we are citizens of the information society. He pointed out that past generations and past societies have found ways to gather information, do more work, extend life expectancy, and improve living standards. In the past era, time was not that important. Messages from the rulers may take several months on a marine courier. Pony Express was six days. The plane was cross country all night. The time between thought and action is inherently essentially indistinguishable. Leaders rely on collective knowledge sharing, but leaders who imagine that they are engaged in strategic thinking, rather than raising events, see the present as their own personal and organizational future can do.
In this book I will consider the importance of strategic thinking for leaders who want to shape the future and future of the environment. Strategic thinking is the starting point for creating a vision. Traditional plans lead to a flexible organizational structure that changes to "on the fly".
Previous generations' strategies allowed leaders time such as thinking, vision sensing, clarification of vision, clear instructions to begin discussing action plans. By accepting that the future is no longer the event that will occur later, this book explores how the leader thinks, conceives, clarifies and plans. How does the leader continue to use the strategy in the rapidly changing global environment? The answer is the era of possibility [2]. As we have never been released from the work of traditional work, we can choose the future and shape it freely according to our desires and needs.
This era is Gates' extension. Information society. We have the ability to choose reality so that we have never been tired. In the past, my son 's baker became a bakery. However, many past leaders came from unexpected places. The Bible King David is the young son who keeps the sheep (1 Samuel 16: 11) and Jesus Christ was the carpent's son of the mother we know (Matthew 13:55). [3]. Truman pressed leadership on him. Those people saw points on the horizon, but the event changes their vision. In the era of possibility, we can rewrite our future as the event dictates.
Accepting that it can change as an event indicates that there is less linear structure in this image and it is a more chaotic nonlinear structure. Sanders [4] Although an organization structure as a known initial state is described, it looks random in the future. We use the model of "Lorenz Attractor" to display the interrelated parts that seems to be confused until we reveal the spiral sequence hidden in the model with a more detailed examination. Gates & # 39; The age of the information society and the possibilities of Taylor and Wacker do not depend on linear progress of thinking and behavior, Sunders possesses the nonlinearity of the new science of strategic thinking and has its own natural order You can understand with the conditions of.
Strategy
Does the strategy have mysterious or mysterious things? Leaders and leadership use this term in many contexts, although they do not truly recognize what strategy they are. Therefore, the brief definition of the strategy in this paper is an intentional means to earn revenue with a view to the future.
Mintzberg, et al [5] It explains that strategy necessarily has advantages and disadvantages. The advantage of setting the direction is to chart the course. But the drawback is to narrow the field of vision and conceal the danger. The advantage of focusing is the adjustment of activities. But the drawback is groupthink. If you have an organization definition, you will gain an understanding of the organization. However, the definition may hide the complexity of the support system. By having a strategy that provides consistency, orders are established in a way that reduces ambiguity. But creative groups seem to be operating with little or no consistency.
The strategy includes a paradox. One paradox tells us the story of answers and questions. If you think you have all the answers, someone changes all the questions. Taylor and Wacker state this paradox as "you are wrong, it is wrong." This contradiction confuses the reader, if you are right, how are you wrong? how? The speed of knowledge has accelerated beyond the ability to absorb it with traditional learning patterns.
Another paradox for foresighted leaders is to predict the future. A leader who is a predictor of future success acts as an agent that destabilizes the present. Taylor and Wacker explain that the reality of today and the expectation of tomorrow conflict. Distributing resources between the present and the future creates a large amount of future-based political problems with the current large and huge result.
Strategies at work
Nebraska State recently created National News through the passage of LB 1024 which created a separate school district of Omaha. This bill, in order to defeat the inter-city lawsuit claiming "One City - One School District", Omaha annexed several small suburban communities to the west, and the police, Fire, city service was offered. However, the community was an independent school district.
Bellevue City has several sanitation improvement districts (SID) in the west and provides police, fire and city services to these SIDs. The mayor and city council of Bellevue and Papillon drawn an arbitrary border marking the borderline of the school districts of the two cities. Population growth was close to Bellevue. Now, Bellevue City restrictions are beyond the boundaries of the school district. Therefore, Bellevue insists "One City - One School District".
By passing this bill, Senator Chambers [6] Admitted the official separation of districts. LB 1024 created two super districts, one is Omaha and the other is Bellevue. In Omaha, there are three independent districts in the super district. The independent sub-district has the teacher / student's success measure under faculty employment, federal child labor banning measures, and the authority to manage its own budget. Super district has academic authority in smaller districts.
The most powerful advocate of LB 1024 is the state's strictest discrimination proponent. Why did Senator Arnie Chambers in the 11th district of the state back the bill? He insisted that the Omaha school district has already been separated. Separation occurred again in 1999 at the end of the bus. However, Omaha 's high school is over 48% African - Americans.
Berry mayor Mayor Jerry Ryan acknowledged the depletion of the city funds fighting to redraw school area lines. The fight at Bellevue and Papillion outweighs the federal government dollar to schools with groups of Federal military children. The Offutt Air Force Base is located near the Bellevue, children of subordinate to the army participate in the army primary school and junior high school. When redrawing the district line more federal government funds will be paid to Bellevue public school district.
Strategic thinking and vision
Reading the paragraph above, the reader can ask, "What were they thinking?" Recall that the future predicting paradox affects the current disadvantages.
Another way of looking is that nothing will come out exactly as expected. This allows companies to make strategic thinking in the middle of the migration of paradigm servers to "identify, respond to, and influence changes in the environment."
Strategic thinking makes it possible for leaders to think about the opportunities to innovate and influence their organization's future and future. Strategic thinking helps to abandon policies and procedures that are outdated, obsolete and ineffective.
We recognize that strategic thinking has foresight and has not yet been formed. The foresight is an individual's ability and behavior, and it has aspects of processes and activities in business. At the macro level, foresight is a global habit. Please note that in order to reach the macro level you need a path from the micro individual to reach the macro from the meso organization. The foresight begins with individual leaders seeing and perceiving better ones [7].
The vision is above vision. That is a vision. Being a foresightable leader means not proving answers, but provocative and questionable. Mintzberg, et al (1998) is seeking foresighted leaders working on emotional and spiritual resources, values, desires, and commitments. The leader needs a mental image and builds a spiritual model of the desired future state. A foresightable state is as simple as a dream or complexity.
Future leaders must convert the dreams of desirable future conditions into a vision that can be shared with organizations. Sharing the vision must be aggressive and it must be like the performance of the theater. Mintzberg and others work on the performance of the leader as a rehearsal. Rehearsal is the practice of vision, learning what you can do about any vision. When comfortable with rehearsal, the leader must demonstrate its vision. Performance brings dreams to life. But performance is worthless without spectators. The organization's audience sees performance and seems to imitate performance. Mimicking the performance of the organization serves as a starting point for the transformation to a higher conscious state, Senge [8] I explain that it is a learning organization.
Bellevue, Nebraska state is the third largest city in the state. Eight years ago, Jerry Ryan won his first enforcement for the Mayor of Bellevue, with an election against the popular mayor. The population of Bellevue in 1998 is about 29,000 people. Due to improved transportation, cost of housing and housing development, growth of retail and commercial venture, the population of about 50,000 people explodedly increased.
In May 2006, Mayor Ryan [9] I ran against the opponent's field. Mayor Ryan stood at the ideal that Bellevue had reached a size that required full-time mayor devoted to the city. All adversaries in their 70s do not share his thoughts. Mayor Ryan won the majority of votes to convey the vision of the city to the city. In an interview with mayor Ryan, he expressed how difficult it is to operate a 50,000 part-time city. "Citizens think that I run a city, but I do not recognize that it is a city council that approves all actions, the city council does not want the full mayor," Ryan said in an interview. Mr. Ryan said, "If there is one thing I did not accomplish, I'm pretty much sharing my idea and vision with Congress."
In Omaha 's "One City - One School District" battle, we built a broader tax base by incorporating the suburban district into Omaha, claimed to be able to share the resources more equitably by creating magnet schools throughout the district. Senator Chambers, in favor of LB 1024, have already separated schools, in order to create educational opportunities for racist schools by racist administrators, the prosecution authorities unconstitutionally with federal law , He believed that he violated Omaha's most famous citizen, Warren Buffet (Warren Buffet) and expressed a strong opposition.
Senator Chambers is a controversial and candidly African-American senator. Many of his arguments include racially provocative statements against police, school administrators, teachers, fellow senators. By contrast, to Secretary Ryan, Senator Chambers does not seem to have a vision based on strategic thinking. Senator Chambers Senator 's term is fixed at the end of Unicameral in 2008 and can not be appointed again for the term of office to expire.
Morgan [10] We provide some ideas about real social construction. What he wrote is that people have their own image and these images are developing in reality. The two leaders pointed out so far have seen the reality from various perspectives One holds the vision of what can be done for the city and the other holds the vision of what can be done for the city, Use deep-seated assumptions to counter change.
Other people, department head of big First Data Corporation regional department [11]We provided some insight into strategic thinking and foresight. Improvised interview argued that focusing on what was possible helped to get up in the company when having a serious problem of leadership. When everyone else was seeking safety, she offered innovation. Her member service area is West of the United States, Canada, Mexico. She said, "I am confused and when my things seem to be the most confused, I see divisions diversifying and flattening in departments authorized by my subordinates I will.
Our dialogue kept confusing while Kim managed confusion in the organization plan and policy that was set up. This acknowledges that her expectations and gifts are planned to spend more time than thinking and creating a vision.
Strategic plan
Hill and Jones [12] Discuss the same warning and strategic plan of Davis [13]. One concept of the plan is to do so under uncertainty. In life and business, the only certainty is uncertainty. Because the organization can not predict, the future can not be planned. Another thing to consider is that planning is not the only top management function. The "Ivory Tower" plan may lead senior leaders to be enthusiastic about the plan and to fly through the sky without having operational realities. Finally, strategic planning is done frequently because the planner loses the dynamics of the competitive environment by short-distance view of the current environment.
Mintzberg and colleagues have written a section on "Troubles outside planning plan." They explain that the plan has established flexibility. They support the above assertions with a misunderstanding. This error is that the organization can predict the direction of the environment, manage the environment, it can simply assume its stability. "Since analysis is not synthetic, strategic planning is by no means a strategy. "
If you reverse the course a bit, planning with a strategic thinking and proactive leadership in the cohort is not a bad thing. We apply the control element strategy to the plan that causes the problem. Morgan claims to be supporting plans and plans when created in the framework of a vision that can develop as the environment changes. What they talk about in relation to the tail of "strategic termites" is the unpredictability of the organizational structure. Organizational leaders do not need a strategic plan to guide order. Like colony of termites, order appears in evolutionary form. The plan does not mean that the organization knows what you absolutely want to achieve, it is not guided by the plan. Ideas, actions, and events occur separately, but groups of termites that are obviously confused while self-organizing deprive opportunities for change.
The future depends on it
Looking at the future depends on the foresight. Thinking about the future perspective and the strategic future will create a new paradigm that is part of the already discussed paradox. One old paradigm suggests future thoughts as forecasting and development of forecast based plans. By establishing a plan, the policy necessary for future forecasting will be established. If prediction does not materialize, the organization scrambles to recover. Another paradigm is a future invention. This means that people are interpreted and constrained by the structure that changes and acts through practice. Gas pearl [7] It is reflected in the study of Mintzberg et al. The old paradigm says it will not work in future thought organizations. She tells us that we must integrate strategies including patterns and perspectives into planning and positioning.
Let's see an American company 100 years ago. Of the top 12 companies 100 years ago, 10 companies were selling products. Today, three of the top 12 US companies deal with products. The remaining nine companies, service, manufacturing, high-tech [14]. Indeed the only change is change and business leaders have to learn to deal with it to manage it. Corresponding to change and managing it means that companies can make profits. The future of business is knowledge driven. The country must be smart, the company must be smart and people must be smart.
Countries, businesses, and people must be equally as smart at the same time. In order to win the future game, each of the three must anticipate and adapt to change in order to effectively manage it. Ryan mayor acknowledged that the change is slow. As an example, the city council said that the mayor established a steering committee to investigate whether there is a need to spend money at the mayor 's computer. This city exists on the web, but the city council did not adopt the intra-city and inter-city e-mail system until the steering committee received confirmation of system usage from surrounding cities. The mayor is 72 years old. In contrast, the average age of the city council is about 63 years old. Mayor Ryan recognizes the value of technology and actively enters younger citizens into municipal administration. He believes that young people will promote the risk accreditation council for positive and proactive risk management.
Senator Chambers is the longest serving Senator at Nebraska State University. He was 69 years old and experienced racial discrimination and isolation from allies' senators when he assumed office. An incandesive thief and threat remained in the office door of his capital city, he regards these as badges. He will not appear in the Senate with lawsuits and ties. He wears blue jeans and a sweat shirt to protest conformity. However, Senator Chambers seems to have existed in racial discrimination and separation during the usual times. He rarely seeks coalition with other senators who prefer to be the voice of the opposite movement [15].
These two leaders look different in the future. While thinking about achieving the future by recruiting young people 's thoughts into the political system, the other remains rooted in the past. Both actively manage the future, but approach the future based on current and past experiences, not information search, strategic thinking, futuristic mental modeling.
Conclusion
In this paper, we discussed strategies, strategic thinking, vision creation, planning, and the future. These are presented individually, but these are not separate activities. By recognizing the Lorenz Attractor as a spiral of the interaction part of the organization, we see that this model fits the nonlinear process of thinking, vision, and planning. By looking at the current evolving future, it will help the leader understand that strict policies based on formal strategic plans hinder response to changes.
The creation of strategic thinking and vision means that leaders will continuously test their mental model with new thoughts and doubts. This cycle process allows leaders to anticipate business cycle confusion. These leaders are required in the future, and organizations hiring these leaders are seeking a learning organization that is preparing for changes before the change occurs in the future.
This paper does not deny the value of the plan as part of the strategic process. However, in a rigorous plan that does not calculate the horizon of the transition of organization development, there is a doubt that "what has happened" is not "what is happening".
Foresight enables organizations to strategically manage, forecast, and position their organization. The result from business foresight is the future that is expected to become an unavoidable future.
References:
Gates, B. (1996). A road ahead. New York: Penguin's book.
2. Taylor, J., Wacker, W. Mansans, H. (2000). Visionary Handbook: 9 paradoxes that shape the future of your business. New Youk: Harper-Collins Publishers, Inc.
3. The Bible. New international version. Bible online. Obtained from http://www.bible.com.
Sanders, TI (1998). Strategic thinking and new science: Plan in chaos, complexity, and change. New York: Free Press.
5. Mintzberg, M. Ahlstrand, B. & Lampel, J. (1998). Strategy Safari: A guided tour around the wild in strategic management. New York: Free Press.
6. Gaspar, J. (2005, August 21 - 24). Corporate foresight - an attempt to listen to voice futures. Generation of process to make strategy. University of Budapest University Corvinus University Department of Future. It was searched on June 15, 2006 from http://www.budapestfutures.org/downloads/abstracts/Gaspar%20Judit%20 Abstract.pdf#search=> judit% 20gaspar% 20corporate% 20foresight.
7. J. Ryan (Personal Communication, April 28, 2006), Discussion of mayor's guidance strategy in the metropolitan area.
8. Senge, PM (1990). Fifth discipline: art and practice of learning organization. New York: double the currency.
9. Morgan, G. (1993). Imagination: The art of creative management. Newberry Park: Sage Publishing, Inc.
10. Hill, CWL & Jones, GR (1998). Strategic management: an integrated approach. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company
11. Davis, S. (1996). Future perfect. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
12. Ong Teck Mong, T. (2006, May 7). To anticipate and manage change: the key to future success. The opening ceremony of the 37th Asian Management Society. Acquired from June 16, 2006 [http://www.aim.edu.ph/home/announcementc.asp?id=741].
Arnie Chambers. (2006). Wikipedia Acquired from May 31, 2006 [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernie_Champers].
14. Blackman, DA and Henderson, S. (2004). How the visionary mind produces the future of the future: the role of doubt. Futures, 36, 253-266.
15. Johnson, TA (2000). Nebraska State Senator Ernesto Chambers' intellectual and political biography: activists, politicians, humanitarians, 1937-. Hirano Humanities Union: Event. Acquired from May 31, 2006 [http://libr.unl.edu:2000/plains/events/seminars/johnson1.html]
16. Nadler, DA and Tushman, ML (1997). Competition by design: Power of organization architecture New York: Oxford University Press.
17. Somasegar (No First Name) (January 21, 2006). Strategic thinking. It was acquired from http://blogs.msdn.com/User/Profile.aspx?UserID=3644 on June 2, 2006.
EmoticonEmoticon